🧠 Smart, but wrong

⏳ Estimated reading time: 2 minutes, 39 seconds

Yesterday I interviewed my mum. She clearly enjoyed talking for a solid hour and a half. But it was genuinely interesting. She lived through a real technological shift, from analogue graphic design in the 1980s GDR to digital desktop publishing in the 1990s. But more on that another time…

Here is an uncomfortable truth.

Smart people don’t make better decisions. But they sound more convincing when they’re wrong.

In my first startup, we had a business angel who played a key role early on. He helped us get traction, brought credibility, and opened doors for further funding. Over time, he secured a seat on our advisory board.

He was charismatic. Articulate. Very confident.

There was just one problem.

He had no real understanding of our industry, textbook publishing, and very limited understanding of the technology we were building.

But that didn’t stop him.

In strategic discussions, his opinions carried weight. Not because they were better, but because they were presented better.

And this is where things quietly went wrong.

We didn’t discuss ideas as hypotheses. We discussed them as opinions.

And when it’s opinion versus opinion, the better communicator wins.

Not the better idea.

Looking back, this was avoidable. Not because he was wrong about everything, and not because we were right. But because we confused sounding smart with being right.

Because intelligence doesn’t reduce bias.

It amplifies it.

The more articulate you are, the easier it becomes to defend weak ideas, dismiss opposing views, and rationalise decisions that should have been challenged.

In the book Think Again, Adam Grant makes a simple point.

Rethinking is not about intelligence. It’s about willingness.

Most leaders don’t struggle with understanding new information. They struggle with updating their position.

Because beliefs are tied to identity.

Changing your mind doesn’t feel like progress. It feels like losing.

So instead of rethinking, leaders double down. They defend their position, sharpen their arguments, and become even more convincing.

Even when they’re wrong.

Before making a decision, ask a simple question. What would prove this wrong?

Write it down and make it explicit.

If you don’t define failure in advance, you will reinterpret almost any outcome as success later.

Rethinking is not a one-time act. It is a loop.

Start with humility. Accept that you might be wrong.
Move to doubt. Question your own assumptions.
Add curiosity. Actively seek perspectives that challenge you.
And end with discovery. Use new evidence to update your beliefs.

The key shift is your mindset.

You have to learn to enjoy being wrong. Because every time you are wrong, you are getting closer to what actually works.

Better decisions don’t come from stronger opinions. They come from better testing.

Research from Bocconi University shows that teams trained in more rigorous, hypothesis-driven thinking make better decisions, pivot faster, and kill weaker ideas earlier.

So act more like a scientist.

Define clear hypotheses.
Set explicit decision criteria.
Design tests that could prove you wrong, not just confirm you right.

And most importantly, reward this behaviour.

Because in most organisations, confidence gets promoted.

But in innovation, rigor wins.

I recently published a video called Draw Your Strategy. The idea is simple. If you can’t draw it, you probably don’t understand it. And once you do, it becomes much easier to spot which innovation initiatives actually fit, and which ones don’t.

Watch it here: Draw Your Strategy

Your vote helps me sharpen the next one.

See you next week!

Cheers,

Founder of the Psychology of Innovation